AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): With the formal expiration of the strategic arms control agreement known as New START Treaty, signs have emerged indicating that major powers are entering a new phase of nuclear competition. Less than two weeks after the treaty’s lapse, the United States announced its preparedness to increase the capacity of its nuclear arsenal, an initiative that could carry significant implications for global strategic stability.
Pentagon Signals Readiness to Expand Warhead Deployment
The Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) stated that it possesses the technical and operational capability to reconfigure LGM-30G Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). Plans have also been raised to restore nuclear weapons capability across the entire fleet of B-52H Stratofortress bombers.
According to official data, approximately 400 Minuteman III missiles are currently deployed in underground silos across the U.S. states of Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Colorado. Each missile is presently equipped with a single W78 nuclear warhead or W87 nuclear warhead, possessing an estimated explosive yield of 300 to 350 kilotons. Reintroducing MIRV capability could potentially triple the number of deployed land-based nuclear warheads.
Simultaneously, roughly 30 of the 76 operational B-52H bombers, previously assigned exclusively to conventional missions, may be re-equipped to carry nuclear weapons, significantly expanding the strategic reach of the United States’ nuclear bomber force.
Potential Russian and Global Responses
Russia had previously indicated that it would continue voluntarily observing New START limitations even after the treaty’s expiration, provided that Washington adopted a reciprocal approach. However, Washington’s newly declared posture may prompt Moscow to reconsider that position.
Russia currently maintains a diverse inventory of intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, including the RSM-56 Bulava deployed aboard Borei-class submarine vessels, capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads. Advanced systems such as the RS-24 Yars and the heavy RS-28 Sarmat are also regarded as high-capacity MIRV-equipped strategic platforms.
Analysts assess that any formal expansion of U.S. nuclear capabilities could trigger reciprocal measures by Russia, China, and North Korea, potentially accelerating an escalating cycle of strategic arms competition.
Regional and Global Implications
Security experts warn that heightened nuclear tensions among major powers may encourage non-nuclear states to reassess their defense doctrines. Some assessments suggest the possibility of accelerated missile and defense programs in multiple regions.
Concerns have also emerged regarding the broader impact on global strategic stability. The termination of the last major arms control framework between Washington and Moscow has created a legal and regulatory vacuum in limiting strategic arsenals, while prospects for renewed negotiations remain uncertain.
Entering an Era of Strategic Uncertainty
With the expiration of the New START Treaty, many observers argue that the post–Cold War era of nuclear arms control has effectively come to an end. Amid strained relations between the United States, Russia, and China, the absence of binding verification and limitation mechanisms may further complicate strategic calculations.
Some analysts maintain that a return to dialogue and the revival of arms control frameworks could prevent further escalation. Others warn that expanding nuclear force structures and altering deployment postures may hasten the world’s transition into a renewed era of strategic weapons competition.
Overall, the end of the New START Treaty represents a turning point in international security dynamics, with forthcoming decisions by nuclear powers expected to play a decisive role in shaping the future trajectory of global stability.
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